06.08.07

HIV/AIDS TB AND MALARIA
Commitment to provide $60 billion for AIDS, TB and Malaria

The G8 committed to provide a total of $60 billion to fight AIDS, TB and Malaria. This is a global figure and was not accompanied by any specific time line. Half of this total will come from the US, which recently announced a commitment to spend $30 billion in the 5 years 2009-2013 to fight AIDS. According to DATA’s analysis, the $60 billion commitment will add at most $2.4 billion in additional aid to Africa in 2010, and $3 billion globally.

The following provides details of DATA’s analysis comparing the Gleneagles $25 billion on aid for Africa in 2010 with the Heiligendemm $60 billion for AIDS, TB and malaria over 5 years.

In this analysis, for the purpose of illustration, DATA assumes the entire $60 billion will be spent on AIDS. It therefore provides a more generous estimate than if malaria and TB were also included. DATA also assumes the $30 billion from the rest of the G8 donors will be spent over the same five year period as the US commitment (2009-2013). Like the US commitment of $30 billion, we assume the matching $30 billion includes sums which are already being programmed to fight AIDS.

Assuming:

• The US will start from a base of $5.4 billion a year
• The rest of the G8 will start from a base of approximately $1.9 billion a year
• 75% of the $60 billion in funding will go to Africa
• In 2010, all G8 donors will be spending $10.4 billion a year to fight AIDS, $3 billion of which will be new money as a result of this commitment
• In 2010, G8 donors will be spending $7.8 billion to fight AIDS in Africa, $2.4 billion of which will be new money
• This $2.4 billion in new money will be less than 10% of the total of $25 billion additional assistance in 2010 that was pledged at Gleneagles
• Over the full five years of the $60 billion commitment, $23.5 billion will be new money.
• Over the full five years of the commitment, approximately $45 billion will go to Africa, $17.6 billion of which will be new money.

This is significant and welcome, but not as big as it seems on first sight. It is not $60 billion of new money. It is about $3 billion of new money in 2010, $2.4 billion of which will go to Africa.

This is a positive step and a strong commitment, and it is almost 10 percent of the $25 billion additional by 2010 which has been promised. This must be just one of a number of new commitments to meet the Gleneagles promises. We need new commitments in other health sectors and on education, trade, governance and peace and security to truly ensure that the G8 deliver on their promises to Africa.


Is there a commitment to provide treatment to 5 million people in Africa?

The G8 reaffirmed their commitment to scale up towards Universal Access by 2010 and included a pledge to put 5 million people on treatment. It is not clear if this commitment is global or just for Africa and did not include a target date, reflecting likely disagreement in G8 negotiations.

The commitment to put 5 million people on treatment, while laudable, falls short of the goal of Universal Access by 2010.

There is not clarity over exactly how many people will need treatment in 2010 in Africa.

• Until recently, UNAIDS estimates put the number of people needing AIDS treatment in Africa at 5 million. UNAIDS defines Universal Access as providing treatment to 80% of people in most urgent need by 2010. Therefore, achieving Universal Access in Africa would require putting 4 million people on treatment by 2010.
• On June 5, UNAIDS released a statement suggesting the number of people requiring treatment globally is 11 million and could be as high as 16 million. The number of people requiring treatment in Africa is now estimated to be between 7 million and 11 million. Therefore, according to these estimates, achieving Universal Access in Africa would require putting between 5.6 million and 8.8 million people on treatment.

MALARIA
Reiteration of 2005 Gleneagles Malaria Commitment

The G8 have included a reiteration of their 2005 commitment to reach 85% of those in need with malaria prevention and treatment by 2015 and achieve a 50% reduction in malaria-related deaths. However they did not reiterate their commitment to spend an additional $1.5 billion annually on this effort.

Recent estimates place the financing required to fight malaria in Africa at an average of $3.1 billion a year between 2007-2015.


GLOBAL FUND
No specific financial pledges

The G8 did not make any specific financial pledges to the Global Fund. The communiqué acknowledged the agreed-upon Global Fund target size of $6-$8 billion a year by 2010 and included a general pledge to replenish the Global Fund and provide long term predictable funding.


EDUCATION
No specific financial pledge. General commitment to meet funding shortfalls in 2007.

The G8 did not make an explicit financial commitment to fill the external financing gaps of FTI endorsed countries. Instead the communiqué states the G8 will work to “meet shortfalls” in the FTI endorsed countries, which the communiqué acknowledges to be $500 million for the 31 endorsed countries.

NB: Of these 31 endorsed countries, 19 are in Africa and their external financing gaps collectively total $367 million of the $500 million.

TRADE
No new commitments

The G8 Declaration on trade contains no new commitments. The Declaration reiterates the need for a conclusion to the Doha Round and refers to the statement by the US, EU, Brazil and India in April that they can achieve convergence quickly. It calls on the leadership to “translate the continued commitment on political level into tangible results” and emphasizes the importance of the development dimension of the round and the need for close cooperation among all WTO members. In the Africa Communique, the G8 simple repeated their commitment to increase aid for trade funding to a total of $4 billion, funding that will be directed to all developing countries, not just Africa.

OVERALL ODA
Reiteration of 2005 Gleneagles commitment to increase aid to Africa by $25 billion by 2010

The G8 included a reiteration of their 2005 aid commitment to increase ODA to Africa by $25 billion a year by 2010 (compared to 2004). The G8 did not commit to an accountable timetable for delivering its 2005 aid promises for Africa.

OTHER COMMITMENTS
There were other commitments made by the G8 in Heiligendamm, which are not included in this note. DATA will provide further analysis in the coming weeks.